09:50 – July 9, 2021
This game certainly tests you at times. Following the frustration of Lee Westwood getting caught and passed at the Scottish Open yesterday by Jack Senior, scuppering the win part of the Find Me a 100 Winner first round leader bet, round one of the John Deere Classic has finished with last week’s Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Chesson Hadley, tied for the lead with Sebastian Munoz, the man I wanted to put up this week! I wrote this about in the column.
“Sebastian Munoz would have been a pick if his price of 100.099/1 had held out but he’s been backed into 90.089/1 over the last 24 hours or so. The Colombian is a strong putter with a recent high finish in an event the correlates nicely (third at the Charles Schwab Challenge) so I can see why he’s been supported.”
? PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 8, 2021
Jordan Spieth has won this event from off the pace twice. He sat tied for 64th and six back after round one in 2013 and he was tied for 101st and eight adrift in 2015 but the majority of winners are up with the pace from the get-go.
The last four winners have been inside the top-ten and no more than four adrift after round one and we’ve seen four players either win or get beat in a playoff in the last 15 years, that have led after the first round.
Munoz ranks second for Greens In Regulation and third for Stroke Gained Tee to Green after round one and if he keeps playing like that he should be there or thereabouts on Sunday but the one that interests me the most today is Cameron Champ.
Champ has been putting very poorly of late but he appears to have found something if yesterday is anything to go by and I’m happy to chance him at 55.054/1 given he trails by only three in a tie for seventh.
23:20 – July 8, 2021
Pre-tournament 1000.0 chance, Jack Senior, leads the Scottish Open after a seven-under-par 66 around the Renaissance Course but a host of big names are tucked in behind and we’ve already seen plenty of movement in the Open Championship market.
Jon Rahm, who sits tied for fourth and two off the lead, has hardened up at the head of the market for next week’s major and Justin Thomas’ price has moved ten points south after his opening 65 which sees him sit one behind Senior, alongside my Find Me a 100 Winner pick, Lee Westwood.
Westwood’s 55/1 place in the First Round Leader market provided some profit but it’s fair to say I’m no big Senior fan.
It’s obviously a wide-open event but with the forecast changing and the weather not looking anywhere near as bad as feared earlier in the week, I don’t think the winner will come from too far off the pace. The scoring will continue to be good in benign conditions and making up ground will be tough.
It was impossible not to be impressed by Rahm today and there’s nothing wrong with his price of 4.84/1. The world number one has a phenomenal strike-rate on the European Tour, winning six of his 19 starts, including his last two – the Open de Espana and the DP World Tour Championship in 2019.
Scottish Open Pre-Event Selections:
Tyrrell Hatton @ 23.022/1
Bernd Wiesberger @ 48.047/1
Jon Rahm @ 4.94/1
John Deere Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Troy Merritt @ 60.059/1
Patton Kizzire @ 60.059/1
Sebastian Munoz @ 90.089/1 (added after preview published)
Cameron Champ @ 55.054/1
Find Me a 100 Winner Selections:
Back 2 u Andy Sullivan @ 120.0119/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1
Back 2u Lee Westwood @ 130.0129/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.35/4
Back 1u Lee Westwood @ 75.074/1 First Round Leader
1u each-way First Round Leader @ 56.055/1 Sportsbook
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